{"id":23109,"date":"2009-10-06T14:41:56","date_gmt":"2009-10-06T14:41:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.xotels.com\/uncategorized\/accuracy-of-your-hotel-forecast"},"modified":"2025-11-27T14:59:07","modified_gmt":"2025-11-27T14:59:07","slug":"forecast-accuracy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.xotels.com\/en\/revenue-management\/revenue-management-book\/forecast-accuracy","title":{"rendered":"Accuracy of your Hotel Forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"fusion-fullwidth fullwidth-box fusion-builder-row-1 fusion-flex-container nonhundred-percent-fullwidth non-hundred-percent-height-scrolling\" style=\"--awb-border-radius-top-left:0px;--awb-border-radius-top-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-left:0px;--awb-flex-wrap:wrap;\" ><div class=\"fusion-builder-row fusion-row fusion-flex-align-items-flex-start fusion-flex-content-wrap\" style=\"max-width:1248px;margin-left: calc(-4% \/ 2 );margin-right: calc(-4% \/ 2 );\"><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-0 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:0px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-1\"><div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">You should aim at 5% maximum (+\/-) variance for the next month, variance between your forecast and the actual results. Take the time to analyze the variances to understand, learn and improve your hotel forecast and <a href=\"\/\">revenue management<\/a> decisions.<\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">How much do the room nights or the ARR variance impact total variance? Study the forecast variance by day of the week and by segments. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>A variance can also be caused by an incorrect on the books; before extracting your on the books, ensure that:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The segmentation is correct<\/li>\n<li>Review all your definite groups. Evaluate the possible increase or decrease of the block. Ensure room blocks are well updated<\/li>\n<li>Evaluate your group tentative and apply a materialization factor<\/li>\n<li>Verify you do not have duplicate bookings<\/li>\n<li>Ensure that you do not have pending reservations not entered yet in the PMS<\/li>\n<li>Take out oversold rooms on expected cancellations and base your forecast on the number of rooms available to sell<\/li>\n<li>Every room block and reservations are attached to a correct rate or rate code.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">The accuracy of your forecast is the key to the profitability or GOPPAR of your hotel. Other departments depend on it. Therefore, <a href=\"\/en\/revenue-management-outsourcing\">revenue managers<\/a> should set the bar even sharper, and only allow ourselves a maximum of 3% variance.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-2\"><p><div class=\"fusion-button-wrapper\"><a class=\"fusion-button button-flat fusion-button-default-size button-default fusion-button-default button-1 fusion-button-default-span fusion-button-default-type\" target=\"_self\" href=\"\/en\/revenue-management\/revenue-management-book\/forecast-influences\/\" id=\"buttonemail\"><span class=\"fusion-button-text awb-button__text awb-button__text--default\">Previous<\/span><\/a><\/div> <div class=\"fusion-button-wrapper\"><a class=\"fusion-button button-flat fusion-button-default-size button-default fusion-button-default button-2 fusion-button-default-span fusion-button-default-type\" target=\"_self\" href=\"\/en\/revenue-management\/ebook-revenue-management\/\" id=\"buttonemail\"><span class=\"fusion-button-text awb-button__text awb-button__text--default\">Book Index<\/span><\/a><\/div> <div class=\"fusion-button-wrapper\"><a class=\"fusion-button button-flat fusion-button-default-size button-default fusion-button-default button-3 fusion-button-default-span fusion-button-default-type\" target=\"_self\" href=\"\/en\/revenue-management\/revenue-management-book\/hotel-forecasting\/\" id=\"buttonemail\"><span class=\"fusion-button-text awb-button__text awb-button__text--default\">Next<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/p>\n<\/div><div ><a class=\"fusion-button button-flat fusion-button-default-size button-default fusion-button-default button-4 fusion-button-default-span fusion-button-default-type\" style=\"--awb-margin-left:+1.5%;\" target=\"_self\" href=\"\/en\/subscribe\/\"><span class=\"fusion-button-text awb-button__text awb-button__text--default\">Subscribe to Our Blog<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"fusion-separator fusion-full-width-sep\" style=\"align-self: center;margin-left: auto;margin-right: auto;margin-top:50px;width:100%;\"><div class=\"fusion-separator-border sep-double\" style=\"--awb-height:20px;--awb-amount:20px;border-color:var(--awb-color3);border-top-width:1px;border-bottom-width:1px;\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-fullwidth fullwidth-box fusion-builder-row-1-1 fusion-flex-container has-pattern-background has-mask-background fusion-parallax-none hundred-percent-fullwidth non-hundred-percent-height-scrolling\" style=\"--awb-border-radius-top-left:0px;--awb-border-radius-top-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-left:0px;--awb-padding-top:0px;--awb-padding-right:0px;--awb-padding-bottom:106px;--awb-padding-left:0px;--awb-padding-right-medium:0px;--awb-padding-left-medium:0px;--awb-padding-top-small:0px;--awb-background-image:url(&quot;https:\/\/www.xotels.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Native-Ads-Xotels-background-blue.webp&quot;);--awb-background-size:cover;--awb-flex-wrap:wrap;\" ><div class=\"fusion-builder-row fusion-row fusion-flex-align-items-flex-start fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-end fusion-flex-content-wrap\" style=\"width:104% !important;max-width:104% !important;margin-left: calc(-4% \/ 2 );margin-right: calc(-4% \/ 2 );\"><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-padding-right:23px;--awb-padding-left-small:30px;--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:65%;--awb-flex-grow:0;--awb-flex-shrink:0;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:2.95384615385%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:2.95384615385%;--awb-width-medium:65%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-flex-grow-medium:;--awb-flex-shrink-medium:;--awb-spacing-right-medium:2.95384615385%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:2.95384615385%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-flex-grow-small:;--awb-flex-shrink-small:;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\" data-scroll-devices=\"small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-center fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"fusion-separator fusion-full-width-sep\" style=\"align-self: center;margin-left: auto;margin-right: auto;margin-top:1rem;margin-bottom:1rem;width:100%;\"><\/div><div class=\"fusion-title title fusion-title-1 fusion-sep-none fusion-title-center fusion-title-text fusion-title-size-div\" style=\"--awb-text-color:#e3e2de;--awb-margin-top-small:10px;--awb-margin-right-small:0px;--awb-margin-bottom-small:10px;--awb-margin-left-small:0px;--awb-font-size:4em;\"><div class=\"fusion-title-heading title-heading-center title-heading-tag fusion-responsive-typography-calculated\" style=\"margin:0;letter-spacing:-0.1em;font-size:1em;--fontSize:64;line-height:1.25;\"><p style=\"text-align: center; ;cursor: pointer;\"><a style=\"text-decoration: none !important;\" href=\"\/en\"><span style=\"color: #e3e2de!important; text-decoration: none !important;\"><strong>Maximize Your<br \/>\nHotel Revenue<\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-title title fusion-title-2 fusion-sep-none fusion-title-center fusion-title-text fusion-title-size-three\" style=\"--awb-text-color:#e3e2de;--awb-margin-top:0px;--awb-margin-bottom:0px;--awb-margin-top-small:10px;--awb-margin-right-small:0px;--awb-margin-bottom-small:10px;--awb-margin-left-small:0px;--awb-font-size:1.2em;\"><h3 class=\"fusion-title-heading title-heading-center fusion-responsive-typography-calculated\" style=\"margin:0;letter-spacing:-0.1em;font-size:1em;--fontSize:19.2;--minFontSize:19.2;line-height:1.3;\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\">Uncover the hidden revenue potential of your hotel<br \/>\nor resort.<\/p><\/h3><\/div><div class=\"fusion-separator fusion-full-width-sep\" style=\"align-self: center;margin-left: auto;margin-right: auto;margin-top:1rem;margin-bottom:1rem;width:100%;\"><\/div><div class=\"fusion-builder-row fusion-builder-row-inner fusion-row fusion-flex-align-items-flex-start fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-end fusion-flex-content-wrap\" style=\"--awb-flex-grow:0;--awb-flex-grow-medium:0;--awb-flex-grow-small:0;--awb-flex-shrink:0;--awb-flex-shrink-medium:0;--awb-flex-shrink-small:0;width:104% !important;max-width:104% !important;margin-left: calc(-4% \/ 2 );margin-right: calc(-4% \/ 2 );\"><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column_inner fusion-builder-nested-column-0 fusion_builder_column_inner_1_2 1_2 fusion-flex-column fusion-no-small-visibility\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:50%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:0%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:28.8%;--awb-width-medium:50%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:0%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:28.8%;--awb-width-small:50%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:0%;--awb-spacing-left-small:28.8%;\" data-scroll-devices=\"small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-row\"> <a style=\"\n display: flex;\n align-items: center;\n justify-content: center;\n background-color: #e3e2de; \n color:#1351aa; \n border-radius: 20px;\n width: 12rem;\n height: 3rem;\n font-weight: 700;\n font-size: 1em;\n border-bottom-width: 3px;\n border-top-width: 3px;\n border-right-width: 3px;\n border-left-width: 3px;\n border-color:#e3e2de;\n text-decoration: none !important;\n \"\n target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"\/en\"><span><\/span>LEARN MORE<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column_inner fusion-builder-nested-column-1 fusion_builder_column_inner_1_2 1_2 fusion-flex-column fusion-no-small-visibility\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:50%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:20.736%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:0%;--awb-width-medium:50%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:20.736%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:0%;--awb-width-small:50%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:20.736%;--awb-spacing-left-small:0%;\" data-scroll-devices=\"small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-row\"> <a style=\"\n display: flex;\n align-items: center;\n justify-content: center;\n background-color: #1351aa;\n color: #e3e2de;; \n border-radius: 20px;\n width: 12rem;\n height: 3rem;\n font-weight: 700;\n font-size: 1em;\n border-bottom-width: 3px;\n border-top-width: 3px;\n border-right-width: 3px;\n border-left-width: 3px;\n border-color:#e3e2de; \n text-decoration: none !important;\n \"\n target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.xotels.com\/en\/locations\" id=\"nativeads\"><span>CONTACT US<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-builder-row fusion-builder-row-inner fusion-row fusion-flex-align-items-flex-start fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-end fusion-flex-content-wrap\" style=\"--awb-flex-grow:0;--awb-flex-grow-medium:0;--awb-flex-grow-small:0;--awb-flex-shrink:0;--awb-flex-shrink-medium:0;--awb-flex-shrink-small:0;width:104% !important;max-width:104% !important;margin-left: calc(-4% \/ 2 );margin-right: calc(-4% \/ 2 );\"><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column_inner fusion-builder-nested-column-2 fusion_builder_column_inner_1_2 1_2 fusion-flex-column fusion-no-medium-visibility fusion-no-large-visibility\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:50%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:0%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:28.8%;--awb-width-medium:50%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:0%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:28.8%;--awb-width-small:50%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:0%;--awb-spacing-left-small:0%;\" data-scroll-devices=\"small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-row\"> <a style=\"\n display: flex;\n align-items: center;\n justify-content: center;\n background-color: #e3e2de; \n color:#1351aa; \n border-radius: 20px;\n width: 15rem;\n height: 3rem;\n font-weight: 700;\n font-size: 1em;\n border-bottom-width: 2px;\n border-top-width: 2px;\n border-right-width: 2px;\n border-left-width: 2px;\n border-color:#e3e2de; \ntext-decoration: none !important;\nmargin-right:5px;\n \"\n target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"\/en\"><span><\/span>LEARN MORE<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column_inner fusion-builder-nested-column-3 fusion_builder_column_inner_1_2 1_2 fusion-flex-column fusion-no-medium-visibility fusion-no-large-visibility\" style=\"--awb-padding-right-small:0px;--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:50%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:20.736%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:0%;--awb-width-medium:50%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:20.736%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:0%;--awb-width-small:50%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:0%;--awb-spacing-left-small:0%;\" data-scroll-devices=\"small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-row\"> <a style=\"\n display: flex;\n align-items: center;\n justify-content: center;\n background-color: #1351aa;\n color: #e3e2de;; \n border-radius: 20px;\n width: 15rem;\n height: 3rem;\n font-weight: 700;\n font-size: 1em;\n border-bottom-width: 2px;\n border-top-width: 2px;\n border-right-width: 2px;\n border-left-width: 2px;\n border-color:#e3e2de;\nmargin-left:10px\ntext-decoration: none !important;\n \"\n target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.xotels.com\/en\/locations\" id=\"nativeads\"><span>CONTACT US<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<div class=\"fusion-separator fusion-full-width-sep\" style=\"align-self: center;margin-left: auto;margin-right: auto;margin-top:50px;width:100%;\"><div class=\"fusion-separator-border sep-double\" style=\"--awb-height:20px;--awb-amount:20px;border-color:var(--awb-color3);border-top-width:1px;border-bottom-width:1px;\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">You should aim at 5% maximum (+\/-) variance for the next month, variance between your forecast and the actual results. Take the time to analyze the variances to understand, learn and improve your hotel forecast and <a href=\"\/en\/hotel-revenue-management\">revenue management<\/a> decisions.<\/span><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[189],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23109","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-revenue-management-book"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Hotel Forecast Accuracy and Variance - Xotels RM Book<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Your monthly hotel forecast has to be accurate. The profitability or GOPPAR of the hotel depends on its accuracy. Only allow 3% variance! 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